With lower than two weeks until polling day, Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford continues to carry a commanding lead over his rivals.

A latest poll, conducted exclusively for Global News by Ipsos between May 17 and 19, found the PCs were leading across many key demographics and Ontario regions.

If the election were to be held tomorrow, 38 per cent of decided voters would vote for Doug Ford and the PCs. A complete of 28 per cent of decided voters would select Steven Del Duca’s Liberal Party and 23 per cent said they’d vote for the Ontario NDP and Andrea Horwath, the poll indicated.

Mike Schreiner’s Green Party would receive six per cent of the vote, with five per cent indicating they’d solid a ballot for an additional party. The speed of people that wouldn’t vote sat at six per cent of those polled, with 13 per cent undecided.

“The opposition parties haven’t been capable of arrange issues that may fracture the coalition that the Progressive Conservatives appear to have for the time being,” Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, told Global News.

“Clearly this is just not an issues-based campaign for the time being. It is actually one about whether people prefer the incumbent over the opposite options and whether or not they feel it’s time for a change.”

Support for the PCs has dropped only one percentage point for the reason that campaign began, while the Liberals have picked up two points. The NDP are down two points and the Greens are up by one.

The poll comes one week after Ontario’s 4 party leaders clashed during a televised debate. The TV event was streamed online, carried on radio and across TV channels within the province.

PC approval rating stays strong

Doug Ford and the PCs have also maintained a healthy approval rate through the campaign, the Ipsos poll suggests.

Greater than half — or 52 per cent — of individuals approve of the performance of Ford and his party. The poll shows 15 per cent strongly approve and 37 per cent are somewhat supportive of the PC record.

Indeed, 41 per cent of those polled imagine the PC government has done job and deserves to be re-elected, the Ipsos poll shows. Fifty-six per cent imagine it’s time for change.

The positive PC numbers are each up one percentage point for the reason that start of the campaign.

Ford and the PC Party lead, or sit at second, in every Ontario region polled.

Within the crucial GTA-905, the PCs hold a commanding lead of 14 percentage points above the Ontario Liberal Party, which is in second place. The Ipsos poll indicates the PCs would receive 44 per cent of the vote, with the Liberals on 30 per cent and the NDP on 17.

The Greens would draw five per cent of the vote within the 905 and 4 per cent would go to other parties.

In Toronto itself, the 416 area, the Ontario Liberals hold a slim lead over the PCs. Del Duca’s party polled at 32 per cent support, in comparison with 30 per cent for Ford’s Progressive Conservatives and 25 per cent for Horwath’s NDP. The Greens registered eight per cent support and 4 per cent went to other parties.

“It’s a low intensity campaign,” Bricker said. “People don’t feel a robust desire to get at this government, no less than not enough of them in the fitting places that cause a change in government.”

Geographic breakdown favours Ford’s PCs

Ipsos also found the PC Party leads amongst each rural and concrete voters. A majority (53 per cent) of rural voters would solid a ballot for the PCs, in comparison with 20 per cent for the Ontario Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP, the poll found. The Greens reported 4 per cent support, with seven percent considering one other party.

In urban and suburban areas across Ontario, the Tories lead their rivals as well. Ipsos found 36 per cent of voters would support a PC candidate, in comparison with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 24 per cent for the NDP and 6 per cent for the Greens.

A complete of 5 per cent would support one other party in urban settings.

Other geographic areas within the province break down as follows:

Southwestern Ontario

  • PC: 36 per cent
  • Liberal: 22 per cent
  • NDP: 30 per cent
  • Green Party: 5 per cent
  • Other parties: 7 per cent

Central Ontario

  • PC: 40 per cent
  • Liberal: 34 per cent
  • NDP: 21 per cent
  • Green Party: 2 per cent
  • Other parties: 3 per cent

Eastern Ontario:

  • PC: 41 per cent
  • Liberal: 28 per cent
  • NDP: 19 per cent
  • Green Party: 9 per cent
  • Other parties: 4 per cent

Northern Ontario

  • PC: 43 per cent
  • Liberal: 22 per cent
  • NDP: 23 per cent
  • Green Party: 5 per cent
  • Other parties: 6 per cent

NDP out in front with young voters

Age-based breakdowns tell an identical but not similar story.

The PC Party leads amongst voters aged 55 or older, the Ipsos poll found. It indicated that 49 per cent of the 55-plus age group would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, in comparison with 28 per cent for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP. Other parties gained seven per cent support.

The PCs also lead for voters aged 35 to 54.

Amongst Ontarians aged 18 to 34, the Ontario NDP holds a commanding lead, in accordance with the Ipsos poll. The party has 38 per cent of the decided vote, in comparison with 28 per cent for the Ontario Liberals and 17 per cent for the PCs. The Greens polled at nine per cent in comparison with eight per cent for all other parties.

Six in ten (57 per cent) Ontarians imagine Del Duca and the Liberals have the higher likelihood at defeating Ford and his party. 4 in ten (43 per cent) imagine Horwath and the NDP have the higher shot.

The election can be held on June 2 and advanced polls opened on May 19.

METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos poll was conducted between May 17 and May 19 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1501 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online (1,001) and by telephone (500). Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to make sure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population in accordance with census information. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. On this case, the poll is accurate to inside ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the outcomes could be had all Ontarians been polled. All sample surveys and polls could also be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.


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